Columns for VoxEU, VoxChina, and VoxDev translating research into policy-relevant insights. Where available, each piece links to its corresponding academic paper.
US solar panel tariffs since 2012 induced Chinese manufacturers to relocate production rather than exit markets, raising domestic prices, reducing employment, and hindering climate goals — production subsidies would do far better.
Related paper: Strategic Avoidance and the Welfare Impacts of U.S. Solar Panel TariffsSearch and information barriers on platforms like AliExpress prevent consumers from finding higher-quality sellers, allowing luck rather than quality to determine which firms succeed in international markets.
Related paper: Market Congestion and Information Frictions on Global E-Commerce PlatformsAbout 30% of reported R&D increases from China's tax incentive program resulted from firms relabeling non-R&D expenses, substantially raising the true fiscal cost of encouraging genuine innovation.
Related paper: Notching R&D Investment with Corporate Income Tax Cuts in ChinaFirms receiving CDM carbon offset projects in China increased emissions by 49% rather than achieving projected 20% reductions, resulting in roughly $65 billion in global welfare losses.
Related paper: Firm Selection and Growth in Carbon Offset MarketsUsing China's VAT reform as a natural experiment, this column shows how tax policy shapes the lumpiness of corporate investment and the implications for aggregate capital allocation.
Related paper: Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment: Evidence from China VAT ReformEvidence from China's 2008 corporate tax reform reveals strategic "notching" behavior, where firms bunch just above R&D thresholds to exploit tax incentives, with some relabeling of administrative expenses as R&D.
Related paper: Notching R&D Investment with Corporate Income Tax Cuts in ChinaOffset programs often lack additionality — emission cuts that would have happened anyway — and can paradoxically raise global emissions unless embedded within compliance markets with strict caps.
Related paper: Firm Selection and Growth in Carbon Offset MarketsThe world's largest carbon offset programme failed in China's manufacturing sector — CDM-certified firms increased emissions by 49%, highlighting the importance of additionality verification in offset markets.
Related paper: Firm Selection and Growth in Carbon Offset MarketsUsing 2019 US tariffs on European wines, this piece shows that consumers bore more than 100% of the tariff burden in dollar terms, while firms engaged in strategic product relabeling to minimize duties.
Related paper: Who Pays for Tariffs Along the Supply ChainForeign producers absorbed about 20% of tariff costs through lower export prices, while US retailers raised markups substantially, ultimately passing more than the full tariff amount to consumers.
Related paper: Who Pays for Tariffs Along the Supply Chain